Estimation Based on Energy and Economic Indicators of the Ratio of Primary Energy Production to Consumption (RPC)

Today, although energy demand forecasting is one of the most common policy tools used by the decision makers around the world, the ratio of energy production to consumption (RPC) becomes a more important parameter on this issue. For a proper energy planning, prediction of at least 10 subsequent years could be necessary since the time between setting up energy production systems and starting the production will be considerably high for the countries that could never ignore the economic stability throughout the country.

There are several factors to determine the energy policies, which are considered to be important for forecasting the future projections in each country. These factors are population growth, the use of energy sources, economic performance, technological developments, import, export, and consumer tastes. In the past, to make futuristic projections towards energy consumptions basic energy indicators have been used [1-19]. Therefore, the correlations between the energy indicators and their effects on the predictions of energy resources have been taken into consideration. Different studies have focused on different countries, time periods, and have used different proxy variables for net energy consumption and energy indicators. There are a few studies that investigate the relationship between economic indicators and energy consumption using different methods and approaches [19-23].

Estimating net energy consumption plays an important role in decision making and planning for governments. In the past, regression analysis has been the most popular modelling technique in predicting net energy consumption. But, the importance of the artificial neural network (ANN) approach, apart from reducing the time required, is that it is possible to make energy applications more viable and thus more attractive to potential users, such as energy engineers. Therefore, the use of ANN for modelling and prediction purposes is becoming increasingly popular recent decades. This is mainly due to the fact that ANN has very good approximation capabilities and offer additional advantages, such as short development and fast processing times. ANNs are especially useful for prediction problems where mathematical formulae and prior knowledge on the relationship between inputs and outputs are unknown.

Currently, the ratio of energy production to consumption (RPC) is considered as a more important parameter than energy demand forecasting which is one of the important policy tools used by the decision makes all over the world. To realize the proper energy planning, approximate changes for the future ten years should be estimated properly.

The ratio of primary energy production to consumption (RPC) was determined as follows:RPC= Total production of primary energy/Final Energy Consumption (1)

As a second parameter, the ratio of primary energy imports to consumption (RIC) was determined as below:

RIC=Net imports of primary energy/Final Energy Consumption (2)

The current assessment and future estimation of RPC and RIC are important for determining the future level of the supply – demand balance and decide proper investments for the future electrical power supply in Turkey.